I agree with your deductions. It may be worth asking Dave (altcar73) for this opinion on the marked police badges, albeit as you say that’s still no guarantee.
Still worth keeping IMO. Some advice I read on here years ago was not to discard anything until you’re 110% sure it is indeed a repro. Wise words.
An observation I would make is that the whole mark on your title is more bunched up than the fakes. This may (or may not) be a good sign.
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