Not so sure that the observations can all be attributed to this economy. The demographics of collecting may have more to do with the situation than economic forces. How many younger/new collectors were there at the shows? One can only sell so many medical corps or service corps badges (or the equivalent in Nazi material eg some of the tinnies or more common breast badges), before an individual has what is needed for their collection. They then move into the next tier or maybe their interest drops off... or the prices asked end their collecting. And Canadian badge collecting is by far defined by the First and Second World Wars. Most collectors do up some sort of order of battle for those conflicts or a lineage for their particular regiments.This certainly helps explain the firm demand for more rare material. Advanced collectors after fewer items...results in a strong market for the scarce material.
I am not sure how the supply and demand curve works for some badges. Eg there are many VIII Recce badges around, yet their prices have sky-rocketed beyond similarly scarce badges. Market manipulation? Yet a Garrison Bn badge has not had a bite when listed at about $3000.
A bit of perspective. Minimum wage is about $11 in Ontario. To buy a scarcer cap badge, say a $40 one, the individual has to work over four hours. To drop $200 on a scarce badge is a significant outlay. Obviously many collectors make a lot more than minimum wage, but the cost of militaria in time worked is the equation. To make collecting a long term enterprise, the badges have to remain within reach of newer collectors. Perhaps the frenzy of bidding on CEF badges last fall was the peak for this particular cycle.
__________________
Res ipsa loquitur
|